Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.036062 0.041112 0.046646 0.053165 0.060641 0.068955 0.078913
2025-01-19 0.026760 0.033231 0.040973 0.050943 0.063473 0.078743 0.098834
2025-01-26 0.023354 0.030725 0.040087 0.052896 0.070040 0.092297 0.123557
2025-02-02 0.020966 0.028915 0.039516 0.054762 0.076255 0.105665 0.149284
2025-02-09 0.019135 0.027485 0.039100 0.056547 0.082282 0.119150 0.176520
2025-02-16 0.017055 0.025387 0.037414 0.056182 0.084997 0.127997 0.197830
2025-02-23 0.015524 0.023871 0.036336 0.056480 0.088568 0.138288 0.222295
2025-03-02 0.013989 0.022157 0.034734 0.055723 0.090305 0.145773 0.242979
2025-03-09 0.013084 0.021315 0.034368 0.056825 0.095044 0.158415 0.273452
2025-03-16 0.011958 0.019991 0.033076 0.056234 0.096837 0.166263 0.296477
2025-03-23 0.011416 0.019573 0.033216 0.058039 0.102861 0.181863 0.334914
2025-03-30 0.010340 0.018134 0.031483 0.056382 0.102548 0.186181 0.353025
2025-04-06 0.009485 0.017020 0.030240 0.055532 0.103712 0.193471 0.378000
2025-04-13 0.008521 0.015625 0.028375 0.053357 0.102178 0.195584 0.393181
2025-04-20 0.008247 0.015467 0.028736 0.055396 0.108915 0.214212 0.443782
2025-04-27 0.007980 0.015295 0.029047 0.057355 0.115676 0.233567 0.498240
2025-05-04 0.007720 0.015109 0.029309 0.059228 0.122438 0.253615 0.556627
2025-05-11 0.007224 0.014411 0.028505 0.058845 0.124443 0.263914 0.594687
2025-05-18 0.006847 0.013917 0.028060 0.059158 0.127948 0.277757 0.642465
2025-05-25 0.006390 0.013220 0.027140 0.058364 0.128937 0.286154 0.678504
2025-06-01 0.006156 0.012968 0.027120 0.059521 0.134400 0.305158 0.742361
2025-06-08 0.005779 0.012380 0.026336 0.058900 0.135718 0.314744 0.784168
2025-06-15 0.005643 0.012303 0.026648 0.060795 0.143115 0.339416 0.867311